← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Thu, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lewis Smith, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 42% | 2.27 |
| Birmingham win | 30% | 3.28 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.48 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham −0.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Watford −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.86 |
| Over | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Thomas Ince · Watford |
| 38' | ⚽ | Thomas Ince · Watford |
| 43' | 🟨 | Matthew Pollock · Watford |
| 60' | ⚽ | Thomas Ince · Watford |
| 63' | 🟨 | Lyndon Dykes · Birmingham |
| 78' | 🟨 | Seung Ho Paik · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 5 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days |
| 0.00 |
| 579.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1473.89 | 1584.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.19 | -50.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 50.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.72 |
| league points | 38.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 2.78 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | 0.31 |
| solidity v1 | 1.15 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.23 | 28.89 |
| state index | 0.32 | -0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 135.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.52 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.38 |