← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Thu, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tom Nield, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 49% | 1.94 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.62 |
| Millwall win | 24% | 4.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall −0.5 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Southampton −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.91 |
| Over | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Nathan Wood · Southampton |
| 37' | 🟨 | Zak Sturge · Millwall |
| 69' | 🟨 | Macaulay Langstaff · Millwall |
| 90' | 🟨 | Billy Mitchell · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 6 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days |
| 184.00 |
| 396.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1440.16 | 1484.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.63 | -26.83 |
| eye test v1 | 0.45 | -0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| league points | 32.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 2.78 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.11 | -1.21 |
| solidity v1 | -0.10 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.11 | — |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.03 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.47 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 0.66 |