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Ipswich 2–1 Oxford

← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Thu, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Will Finnie, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ipswich win70%1.36
Draw19%4.99
Oxford win10%9.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ipswich −1.2552%1.89
Oxford −1.2548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.87
Under48%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽Jaden Philogene-Bidace · Ipswich
27'🟨Siriki Dembélé · Oxford
34'⚽Will Lankshear · Oxford
40'⚽Chuba Akpom · Ipswich
56'🟨Chuba Akpom · Ipswich
56'🟨Ciaron Brown · Oxford
61'🟨Michał Helik · Oxford
75'🟨Will Vaulks · Oxford

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
19Shots8
6On target1
9Corners2
9Fouls12
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricIpswichOxford
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.22
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.600.45
cards avg (last 5)1.601.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venuePortman Road
coach days
1492.00
153.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.07
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.607.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.432.47
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.11
dominance (last 5)0.630.50
elo1535.491406.94
elo momentum (last 5)21.28-15.07
eye test v10.24-0.54
eye trend v1-0.34-0.20
first sub minute (last 10)65.1060.40
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.070.74
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.35
keeper form v1—0.72
league points41.0022.00
league rank3.0022.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.0014.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.8070.40
possession avg (last 5)52.2044.80
rest days2.882.80
scorer concentration0.230.20
season ppg1.710.92
shot diff avg (last 5)6.800.80
shots for avg (last 5)16.6014.00
skill v10.14-1.08
solidity v11.090.27
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.204.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.60
squad age27.51—
state index0.51-0.65
sterile dominance v1-0.03-1.16
threat rate (last 10)0.270.31
threat rate (last 3)0.260.35
threat rate (last 5)0.280.33
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.40
xg against avg (last 5)0.631.18
xg for avg (last 5)1.120.77