← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Thu, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Will Finnie, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 70% | 1.36 |
| Draw | 19% | 4.99 |
| Oxford win | 10% | 9.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich −1.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Oxford −1.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.87 |
| Under | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Jaden Philogene-Bidace · Ipswich |
| 27' | 🟨 | Siriki Dembélé · Oxford |
| 34' | ⚽ | Will Lankshear · Oxford |
| 40' | ⚽ | Chuba Akpom · Ipswich |
| 56' | 🟨 | Chuba Akpom · Ipswich |
| 56' | 🟨 | Ciaron Brown · Oxford |
| 61' | 🟨 | Michał Helik · Oxford |
| 75' | 🟨 | Will Vaulks · Oxford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | Oxford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| coach days |
| 1492.00 |
| 153.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 2.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1535.49 | 1406.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.28 | -15.07 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.10 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.72 |
| league points | 41.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.14 | -1.08 |
| solidity v1 | 1.09 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.51 | — |
| state index | 0.51 | -0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | -1.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.63 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 0.77 |