← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Thu, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hull win | 42% | 2.32 |
| Stoke win | 29% | 3.30 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.42 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Hull −0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.78 |
| Over | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Matt Crooks · Hull |
| 39' | ⚽ | Róbert Boženík · Stoke |
| 45' | 🟨 | Regan Slater · Hull |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jun-Ho Bae · Stoke |
| 82' | 🟨 | Joel Ndala · Hull |
| 90' | 🟨 | Maksym Talovierov · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | MKM Stadium |
| 184.00 |
| 365.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1488.17 | 1456.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 59.11 | -21.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | -1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| league points | 41.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.62 | -0.21 |
| solidity v1 | 0.55 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 28.52 | 28.32 |
| state index | 0.51 | -0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | 1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| travel km | — | 146.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 0.59 |