← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Thu, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Andrew Kitchen, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 39% | 2.49 |
| Derby win | 33% | 3.01 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.35 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby +0.25 | 55% | 1.79 |
| Middlesbrough +0.25 | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.72 |
| Over | 43% | 2.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 59' | 🟨 | Callum Elder · Derby |
| 70' | ⚽ | Bobby Clark · Derby |
| 73' | 🟨 | Lars-Jørgen Salvesen · Derby |
| 84' | 🟨 | Alexander Gilbert · Middlesbrough |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matt Targett · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Pride Park |
| coach days |
| 334.00 |
| 153.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1427.03 | 1505.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.40 | -8.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 45.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| league points | 32.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 64.20 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 18.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | 1.09 |
| solidity v1 | 0.50 | 0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.89 | 28.62 |
| state index | -0.23 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 185.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 0.80 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.48 |