← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Mon, Dec 29, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Matt Donohue, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 40% | 2.44 |
| Southampton win | 33% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.68 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham +0 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Southampton +0 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.75 |
| Under | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Nathan Wood · Southampton |
| 48' | 🟨 | Caspar Jander · Southampton |
| 49' | ⚽ | Phil Neumann · Birmingham |
| 71' | ⚽ | Cameron Archer · Southampton |
| 72' | 🟨 | Phil Neumann · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park |
| coach days |
| 576.00 |
| 181.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1590.18 | 1434.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -67.21 | 13.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | 0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.90 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| league points | 30.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 3.32 | 3.22 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.63 | 0.91 |
| solidity v1 | -0.53 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 28.89 | 27.00 |
| state index | -0.58 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 177.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.66 | 1.21 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.59 |