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West Brom 2–1 QPR

← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Mon, Dec 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Lewis Smith, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
West Brom win54%1.77
Draw25%3.95
QPR win21%4.58

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
West Brom −0.555%1.77
QPR −0.545%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.91
Under49%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'⚽George Campbell · West Brom
35'⚽ (og)Ousmane Diakité · QPR
37'🟨Jimmy Dunne · QPR
42'🟨Kieran Morgan · QPR
55'⚽Nathaniel Phillips · West Brom

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
12Shots3
4On target0
9Corners4
6Fouls10
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricWest BromQPR
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.740.65
cards avg (last 5)1.801.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueThe Hawthorns
coach days
150.00
181.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.20
corner diff avg (last 5)2.00-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.405.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.403.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.472.99
defensive leak (last 5)0.230.16
dominance (last 5)0.630.55
elo1437.161467.03
elo momentum (last 5)-25.6034.67
eye test v10.250.02
eye trend v1-0.48-0.06
first sub minute (last 10)52.8055.00
form points (last 5)3.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.25
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
keeper form v1—0.58
league points28.0035.00
league rank17.009.00
matches since blank1.008.00
matches since clean sheet2.006.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.4074.40
possession avg (last 5)53.6040.00
rest days3.203.20
scorer concentration0.320.31
season ppg1.221.52
shot diff avg (last 5)6.401.40
shots for avg (last 5)15.2011.60
skill v10.49-0.63
solidity v10.370.47
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.804.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.20
squad age27.18—
state index-0.450.08
sterile dominance v1-0.03-1.01
threat rate (last 10)0.300.32
threat rate (last 3)0.270.29
threat rate (last 5)0.290.29
travel km—162.50
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.231.15
xg for avg (last 5)1.611.41