← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Mon, Dec 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Matthew Corlett, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich win | 37% | 2.68 |
| Watford win | 35% | 2.78 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.34 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich +0 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Watford +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.91 |
| Over | 48% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 66' | 🟨 | Jeremy Ngakia · Watford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Vivaldo · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Norwich | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Carrow Road |
| coach days | 150.00 | 150.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1398.46 | 1464.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.01 | 29.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.75 |
| league points | 21.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.08 | -0.10 |
| solidity v1 | 0.05 | 0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 29.13 | 26.38 |
| state index | 0.02 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 159.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 1.06 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.15 |