← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Mon, Dec 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: David Webb, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 40% | 2.48 |
| Bristol City win | 31% | 3.05 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.31 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City −0.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Millwall −0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.75 |
| Over | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Camiel Neghli · Millwall |
| 23' | 🟨 | Alfie Doughty · Millwall |
| 38' | 🟨 | Zak Sturge · Millwall |
| 41' | 🟨 | Tristan Crama · Millwall |
| 49' | ⚽ | Adam Randell · Bristol City |
| 81' | ⚽ | Macaulay Langstaff · Millwall |
| 83' | 🟨 | Thierno Ballo · Millwall |
| 87' | 🟨 | Neto Borges · Bristol City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.55 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days |
| 393.00 |
| 181.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1474.41 | 1520.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.22 | 3.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | 0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | — |
| league points | 36.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 3.28 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.39 | -0.29 |
| solidity v1 | -0.19 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| state index | -0.55 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 1.71 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.73 | 1.37 |