← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Mon, Dec 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Leigh Doughty, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 57% | 1.67 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.18 |
| Hull win | 20% | 5.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough −0.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Hull −0.75 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.73 |
| Under | 44% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Babajide David Akintola · Hull |
| 12' | ⚽ | Darko Gyabi · Hull |
| 15' | 🟨 | Cathal McCarthy · Hull |
| 58' | 🟨 | John Egan · Hull |
| 64' | 🟨 | Kyle Joseph · Hull |
| 78' | 🟨 | Sontje Hansen · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Riverside Stadium |
| coach days | 150.00 | 181.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1518.37 | 1475.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.56 | 28.15 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.20 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.66 |
| league points | 43.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.87 | 1.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.89 | -0.44 |
| solidity v1 | 0.63 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.62 | 29.27 |
| state index | 0.34 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.78 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 107.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 1.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.57 |