← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Mon, Dec 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Gavin Ward, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 45% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.41 |
| Derby win | 26% | 3.64 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Derby −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.70 |
| Over | 43% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Bobby Decordova-Reid · Leicester |
| 9' | ⚽ | Rhian Brewster · Derby |
| 41' | ⚽ | Jordan James · Leicester |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jordan James · Leicester |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kayden Jackson · Derby |
| 90' | 🟨 | Liam Thompson · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days |
| 150.00 |
| 331.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1463.11 | 1434.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.12 | 5.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| league points | 31.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | -1.02 |
| solidity v1 | -0.81 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.09 | 25.89 |
| state index | -0.39 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 38.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.66 | 1.35 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.03 |