← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Leigh Doughty, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 51% | 1.88 |
| Oxford win | 25% | 3.90 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton +0.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Oxford +0.5 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.77 |
| Under | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Brodie Spencer · Oxford |
| 23' | ⚽ | Tyler Goodrham · Oxford |
| 29' | ⚽ | Taylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton |
| 37' | 🟨 | Flynn Downes · Southampton |
| 89' | ⚽ | Stanley Mills · Oxford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stanley Mills · Oxford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 19 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oxford | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Kassam Stadium |
| coach days | 147.00 | 178.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.90 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1409.12 | 1443.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.25 | 16.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 0.91 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.63 |
| league points | 19.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.06 | 0.73 |
| solidity v1 | 0.08 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| squad age | — | 25.92 |
| state index | -0.74 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.13 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.40 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.54 |