← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: James Bell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 55% | 1.73 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.94 |
| Blackburn win | 20% | 4.90 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn −0.75 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Middlesbrough −0.75 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.80 |
| Under | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Alexander Gilbert · Middlesbrough |
| 32' | 🟨 | Ryoya Morishita · Blackburn |
| 57' | 🟨 | Moussa Baradji · Blackburn |
| 80' | 🟨 | Hayden Hackney · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Riverside Stadium |
| coach days | 147.00 | 147.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1521.98 | 1450.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.02 | 9.17 |
| eye test v1 | 0.67 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.59 |
| league points | 42.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.25 | -0.71 |
| solidity v1 | 0.69 | 0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.62 | — |
| state index | 0.53 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.89 | -0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 125.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 0.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.54 |