← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Josh Smith, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 42% | 2.32 |
| Watford win | 31% | 3.13 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.53 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Leicester −0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.88 |
| Under | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Jordan James · Leicester |
| 19' | 🟨 | Abdul Fatawu Issahaku · Leicester |
| 42' | 🟨 | Oliver Skipp · Leicester |
| 45' | ⚽ | Othmane Maamma · Watford |
| 48' | 🟨 | Imrân Louza · Watford |
| 61' | 🟨 | Hector Kyprianou · Watford |
| 63' | 🟨 | Stephy Mavididi · Leicester |
| 65' | ⚽ | Matthew Pollock · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 147.00 | 147.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1475.47 | 1451.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.53 | 14.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| league points | 31.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | 0.04 |
| solidity v1 | -0.78 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.85 | 26.67 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 119.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 1.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.21 |