← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sam Allison, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry win | 61% | 1.60 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.33 |
| Swansea win | 17% | 5.75 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry −1 | 50% | 1.97 |
| Swansea −1 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.65 |
| Under | 41% | 2.31 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Marko Stamenic · Swansea |
| 44' | ⚽ | Ephron Mason-Clark · Coventry |
| 63' | 🟨 | Zeidane Inoussa · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Coventry | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Coventry Building Society Arena |
| coach days | 420.00 | 178.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1753.41 | 1572.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.98 | 16.12 |
| eye test v1 | 0.58 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.54 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.63 |
| league points | 48.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 6.10 | 6.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.18 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.88 | -0.28 |
| solidity v1 | 0.09 | 0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.68 | 26.25 |
| state index | 0.66 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 189.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 0.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 1.04 |