← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 26, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Tim Robinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 48% | 2.02 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.39 |
| Millwall win | 24% | 4.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall +0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Ipswich +0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.74 |
| Over | 45% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 49' | 🟨 | Jaden Philogene-Bidace · Ipswich |
| 83' | 🟨 | Darnell Furlong · Ipswich |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Leonard · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days |
| 390.00 |
| 1486.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 1.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1475.04 | 1513.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.04 | 21.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| league points | 35.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 6.02 | 5.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.01 | 0.29 |
| solidity v1 | -0.62 | 0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 27.51 |
| state index | -0.35 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.01 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 0.92 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.17 |