← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 26, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Ben Toner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 49% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.41 |
| Derby win | 23% | 4.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Birmingham −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.71 |
| Over | 43% | 2.23 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Patrick Agyemang · Derby |
| 29' | 🟨 | Joe Ward · Derby |
| 39' | 🟨 | Joe Ward · Derby |
| 39' | 🟥 | Joe Ward · Derby |
| 49' | 🟨 | Christoph Klarer · Birmingham |
| 64' | ⚽ | Jack Robinson · Birmingham |
| 71' | 🟨 | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 71' | 🟨 | Sondre Langås · Derby |
| 74' | 🟨 | Seung Ho Paik · Birmingham |
| 90' | 🟥 | Christoph Klarer · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 5 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park |
| coach days | 573.00 | 328.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1638.86 | 1600.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.88 | -11.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.53 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.62 |
| league points | 29.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 5.90 | 5.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | -0.79 |
| solidity v1 | -0.78 | 0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.87 | 26.67 |
| state index | -0.25 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 56.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 0.88 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.08 |