← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ben Toner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 47% | 2.08 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.51 |
| Stoke win | 25% | 3.90 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Watford −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.77 |
| Over | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Róbert Boženík · Stoke |
| 59' | 🟨 | Sorba Thomas · Stoke |
| 66' | 🟨 | Vivaldo · Watford |
| 69' | 🟨 | Matthew Pollock · Watford |
| 74' | ⚽ | Luca Kjerrumgaard · Watford |
| 83' | 🟨 | Maksym Talovierov · Stoke |
| 89' | 🟨 | Nestory Irankunda · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 141.00 | 353.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1442.38 | 1478.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.09 | -12.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | -0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| league points | 29.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.33 | -0.24 |
| solidity v1 | 0.37 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.96 | 28.32 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | 0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| travel km | — | 191.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.19 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 0.52 |