← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Farai Hallam, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 49% | 2.01 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
| Portsmouth win | 23% | 4.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Derby −0.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over | 43% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Callum Lang · Portsmouth |
| 42' | 🟨 | Andre Dozzell · Portsmouth |
| 44' | 🟨 | Rhian Brewster · Derby |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Hayden Matthews · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 4 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 4 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Pride Park |
| coach days | 322.00 | 1084.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1603.87 | 1551.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.96 | -4.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.72 |
| league points | 30.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 4.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.13 | -0.68 |
| solidity v1 | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.89 | — |
| state index | 0.23 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.13 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 237.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 1.14 |