← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Backhouse, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 38% | 2.58 |
| Bristol City win | 36% | 2.73 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough +0 | 51% | 1.89 |
| Bristol City +0 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.83 |
| Under | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Emil Riis · Bristol City |
| 25' | 🟨 | Morgan Whittaker · Middlesbrough |
| 33' | 🟨 | Matt Targett · Middlesbrough |
| 36' | 🟨 | Sinclair Armstrong · Bristol City |
| 62' | ⚽ | Robert Atkinson · Bristol City |
| 87' | 🟨 | Cameron Pring · Bristol City |
| 87' | 🟨 | Luke Ayling · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 28 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 13 |
| 6 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bristol City | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Ashton Gate Stadium |
| 0.40 |
| coach days | 172.00 | 141.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1496.05 | 1536.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.14 | 34.42 |
| eye test v1 | 0.67 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.61 |
| league points | 30.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 63.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | 1.08 |
| solidity v1 | -0.01 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 28.62 |
| state index | -0.33 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | 1.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 1.38 |