← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 20, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Adam Herczeg, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 42% | 2.33 |
| Coventry win | 33% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Southampton −0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.59 |
| Under | 40% | 2.45 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Matt Grimes · Coventry |
| 36' | 🟨 | Taylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton |
| 44' | ⚽ | Ephron Mason-Clark · Coventry |
| 47' | 🟥 | Jay Dasilva · Coventry |
| 56' | ⚽ | Nathan Wood · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Coventry |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 172.00 | 414.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 1.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1440.66 | 1618.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.89 | 3.81 |
| eye test v1 | 1.06 | 1.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.76 |
| league points | 30.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 60.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 2.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 19.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.97 | 1.10 |
| solidity v1 | -0.30 | 0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 27.04 | — |
| state index | 0.17 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| travel km | — | 171.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 0.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.76 | 1.71 |