← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 20, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Sam Allison, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn win | 42% | 2.35 |
| Millwall win | 29% | 3.28 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall −0.25 | 51% | 1.89 |
| Blackburn −0.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.75 |
| Over | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Andri Guðjohnsen · Blackburn |
| 25' | 🟨 | Camiel Neghli · Millwall |
| 33' | 🟨 | Sean McLoughlin · Blackburn |
| 45' | ⚽ | Yuki Ohashi · Blackburn |
| 53' | 🟨 | Tristan Crama · Millwall |
| 54' | 🟨 | Todd Cantwell · Blackburn |
| 78' | 🟨 | Yuki Ohashi · Blackburn |
| 89' | 🟨 | Joe Bryan · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Blackburn | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Ewood Park |
| coach days |
| 141.00 |
| 384.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 2.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1436.01 | 1489.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.75 | 2.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.74 |
| league points | 22.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.77 | -1.07 |
| solidity v1 | 0.77 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.64 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | -1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.49 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 0.99 |