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Swansea 2–1 Wrexham

← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 19, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Oliver Langford, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Swansea win44%2.23
Draw28%3.40
Wrexham win28%3.52

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Swansea −0.2551%1.91
Wrexham −0.2549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.76
Over45%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽ (og)Cameron Burgess · Wrexham
18'🟨George Thomason · Wrexham
20'🟨Marko Stamenic · Swansea
42'🟨James McClean · Wrexham
70'⚽Žan Vipotnik · Swansea
72'🟨Ethan Galbraith · Swansea
90'⚽Adam Idah · Swansea

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
22Shots5
5On target1
5Corners7
8Fouls10
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSwanseaWrexham
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.22
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.22
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
box share (last 5)0.580.71
cards avg (last 5)2.001.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSwansea.com Stadium
coach days171.001632.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.210.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.80-3.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.607.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.404.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.762.40
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.08
dominance (last 5)0.460.44
elo1417.781612.69
elo momentum (last 5)-3.37-28.95
eye test v1-0.19-0.67
eye trend v10.31-0.11
first sub minute (last 10)60.5060.00
form points (last 5)6.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.630.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.30
keeper form v10.640.85
league points23.0028.00
league rank18.0015.00
matches since blank5.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4075.80
possession avg (last 5)53.6051.00
rest days6.316.21
scorer concentration0.370.29
season ppg1.101.33
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.60-3.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.2012.20
skill v1-0.25-0.11
solidity v1-0.040.11
sot against avg (last 5)5.404.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.402.60
squad age26.2430.74
state index-0.33-0.28
sterile dominance v10.500.08
threat rate (last 10)0.220.22
threat rate (last 3)0.280.23
threat rate (last 5)0.210.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.091.28
xg for avg (last 5)0.761.31