← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jacob Miles, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 38% | 2.56 |
| Wrexham win | 34% | 2.79 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.51 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford +0 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Wrexham +0 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.91 |
| Over | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Josh Windass · Wrexham |
| 30' | ⚽ | Mamadou Doumbia · Watford |
| 38' | 🟨 | Kieffer Moore · Wrexham |
| 42' | ⚽ | Othmane Maamma · Watford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Josh Windass · Wrexham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marc Bola · Watford |
| 58' | 🟨 | Max Alleyne · Watford |
| 81' | 🟨 | Giorgi Chakvetadze · Watford |
| 82' | 🟨 | Mamadou Doumbia · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ben Sheaf · Wrexham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hector Kyprianou · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Imrân Louza · Watford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Oliver Rathbone · Wrexham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wrexham | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Racecourse Ground |
| coach days | 1626.00 | 134.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1618.72 | 1436.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.74 | 10.04 |
| eye test v1 | -1.09 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.89 | 0.53 |
| league points | 27.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | 0.73 |
| solidity v1 | -0.23 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 30.74 | 26.96 |
| state index | -0.06 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 1.37 |