← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gavin Ward, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 49% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.73 |
| Hull win | 25% | 3.80 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hull −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Millwall −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.90 |
| Under | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Kyle Joseph · Hull |
| 13' | ⚽ | Kyle Joseph · Hull |
| 57' | 🟨 | Liam Millar · Hull |
| 71' | 🟨 | Lewie Coyle · Hull |
| 76' | 🟥 | Femi Azeez · Millwall |
| 80' | ⚽ | Aidomo Emakhu · Millwall |
| 88' | ⚽ | Oliver McBurnie · Hull |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Giles · Hull |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days | 377.00 | 165.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.11 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1509.74 | 1450.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.08 | -8.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.10 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.64 |
| league points | 35.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.10 | -0.15 |
| solidity v1 | -0.17 | -0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 29.05 |
| state index | 0.15 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.75 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.23 |