← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 13, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Ruebyn Ricardo, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 45% | 2.13 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.38 |
| Swansea win | 26% | 3.73 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Swansea −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.67 |
| Over | 42% | 2.35 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Liam Cullen · Swansea |
| 27' | 🟨 | Sorba Thomas · Stoke |
| 42' | ⚽ | Ben Pearson · Stoke |
| 44' | 🟨 | Ben Pearson · Stoke |
| 53' | 🟨 | Marko Stamenic · Swansea |
| 55' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Franco · Swansea |
| 60' | ⚽ | Sorba Thomas · Stoke |
| 77' | ⚽ | Žan Vipotnik · Swansea |
| 85' | 🟨 | Junior Tchamadeu · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Melker Widell · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 346.00 | 165.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1471.16 | 1424.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.02 | -7.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.65 |
| league points | 30.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 2.70 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | -0.27 |
| solidity v1 | -0.15 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.32 | 26.24 |
| state index | -0.59 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.23 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 191.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.40 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.70 |