← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 13, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: James Bell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 48% | 1.99 |
| Norwich win | 28% | 3.57 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich +0.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Southampton +0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.60 |
| Under | 40% | 2.44 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Ruairi McConville · Norwich |
| 48' | ⚽ | Jovon Makama · Norwich |
| 57' | ⚽ | Ryan Manning · Southampton |
| 61' | ⚽ | Jovon Makama · Norwich |
| 84' | 🟨 | Flynn Downes · Southampton |
| 89' | 🟨 | Kellen Fisher · Norwich |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oriol Romeu · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Norwich | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.56 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Carrow Road |
| coach days | 134.00 | 165.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.24 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1370.69 | 1451.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.90 | 73.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | 1.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.59 |
| league points | 14.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.20 | 1.30 |
| solidity v1 | -0.97 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 29.13 | 26.17 |
| state index | -0.59 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 266.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.92 | 1.26 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 2.26 |