← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Wed, Dec 10, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Adam Herczeg, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 62% | 1.57 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.14 |
| Stoke win | 15% | 6.26 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke −1 | 53% | 1.90 |
| Ipswich −1 | 47% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.83 |
| Over | 42% | 2.80 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Jaden Philogene-Bidace · Ipswich |
| 79' | 🟨 | Azor Matusiwa · Ipswich |
| 89' | 🟨 | Maksym Talovierov · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| coach days |
| 1470.00 |
| 343.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.15 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1514.22 | 1478.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.42 | -29.77 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| league points | 31.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.58 | 0.11 |
| solidity v1 | 1.05 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.20 | 28.32 |
| state index | 0.42 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | 0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 247.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 1.25 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 0.80 |