← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Wed, Dec 10, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Thomas Kirk, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 36% | 2.75 |
| Derby win | 35% | 2.81 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Derby +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.66 |
| Over | 42% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Callum Elder · Derby |
| 19' | 🟨 | Liam Thompson · Derby |
| 78' | 🟨 | Femi Azeez · Millwall |
| 81' | ⚽ (og) | Matthew Clarke · Millwall |
| 88' | ⚽ (og) | Jake Cooper · Derby |
| 90' | 🟨 | Macaulay Langstaff · Millwall |
| 90' | 🟨 | Danny McNamara · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Pride Park |
| coach days |
| 312.00 |
| 374.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 3.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1412.63 | 1510.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.97 | 5.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 50.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| league points | 26.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.60 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 4.30 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 1.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.40 | -1.09 |
| solidity v1 | 0.14 | -0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.89 | — |
| state index | -0.57 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.28 | -0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 1.04 |