← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Dec 9, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: James Bell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 39% | 2.51 |
| QPR win | 34% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.52 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham +0 | 59% | 1.83 |
| QPR +0 | 41% | 2.80 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.93 |
| Under | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Amadou Salif Mbengue · QPR |
| 40' | ⚽ | Jimmy Dunne · QPR |
| 80' | 🟨 | Seung Ho Paik · Birmingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kieran Morgan · QPR |
| 90' | ⚽ | Patrick Roberts · Birmingham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kieran Morgan · QPR |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 3 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | QPR | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Loftus Road |
| coach days |
| 161.00 |
| 556.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1446.08 | 1635.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.57 | -31.87 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.71 |
| league points | 28.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 3.21 | 3.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | 0.75 |
| solidity v1 | 0.32 | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 28.61 |
| state index | -0.04 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.17 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 155.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.80 |