← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Dec 9, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Sam Allison, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 52% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.79 |
| West Brom win | 23% | 4.26 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton −0.5 | 56% | 1.87 |
| West Brom −0.5 | 44% | 2.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.79 |
| Under | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Ousmane Diakité · West Brom |
| 12' | ⚽ | Leo Scienza · Southampton |
| 17' | ⚽ | Adam Armstrong · Southampton |
| 35' | ⚽ | Adam Armstrong · Southampton |
| 49' | 🟨 | Adam Armstrong · Southampton |
| 62' | ⚽ | Karlan Grant · West Brom |
| 78' | 🟨 | Isaac Price · West Brom |
| 86' | ⚽ | Nathaniel Phillips · West Brom |
| 89' | 🟨 | Oriol Romeu · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days |
| 161.00 |
| 130.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.26 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1442.79 | 1449.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 78.61 | 0.63 |
| eye test v1 | 1.39 | 0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.62 |
| league points | 27.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.07 | 0.16 |
| solidity v1 | 0.18 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 26.46 | 26.05 |
| state index | 0.74 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 182.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.28 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.46 |