← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Dec 9, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Oliver Langford, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 39% | 2.45 |
| Charlton win | 33% | 2.99 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.45 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton +0.25 | 58% | 1.81 |
| Middlesbrough +0.25 | 42% | 2.80 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.84 |
| Over | 45% | 2.60 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Harvey Knibbs · Charlton |
| 33' | ⚽ | Riley McGree · Middlesbrough |
| 38' | 🟨 | James Bree · Charlton |
| 45' | ⚽ | Morgan Whittaker · Middlesbrough |
| 69' | 🟨 | Alexander Gilbert · Middlesbrough |
| 75' | 🟨 | Greg Docherty · Charlton |
| 81' | ⚽ (og) | George Edmundson · Charlton |
| 82' | 🟨 | Kayne Ramsay · Charlton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 6 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 5 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charlton | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| venue | The Valley |
| coach days |
| 677.00 |
| 130.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1541.72 | 1513.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -62.17 | 24.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.61 |
| league points | 23.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 60.40 |
| rest days | 10.20 | 3.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.60 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.04 | 0.68 |
| solidity v1 | -1.61 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 28.62 |
| state index | -0.87 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | 1.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 353.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.31 | 1.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.69 | 1.11 |