← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Backhouse, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 46% | 2.11 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
| Oxford win | 26% | 3.74 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea −0.25 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Oxford −0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.74 |
| Over | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | ⚽ | Marko Stamenic · Swansea |
| 43' | 🟨 | Josh Tymon · Swansea |
| 43' | 🟨 | Mark Harris · Oxford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Filip Krastev · Oxford |
| 45' | ⚽ | Josh Tymon · Swansea |
| 61' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Franco · Swansea |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jack Currie · Oxford |
| 84' | 🟨 | Will Lankshear · Oxford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Oxford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | Swansea.com Stadium |
| coach days |
| 158.00 |
| 127.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1402.49 | 1435.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -57.79 | -15.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.78 |
| league points | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | -1.20 |
| solidity v1 | -0.93 | -0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.23 | — |
| state index | -1.45 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.01 | -1.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.60 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.58 | 1.06 |