← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Webb, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 43% | 2.29 |
| Birmingham win | 31% | 3.06 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.70 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Southampton −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.86 |
| Under | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Finn Azaz · Southampton |
| 24' | ⚽ | Adam Armstrong · Southampton |
| 49' | 🟨 | Tomoki Iwata · Birmingham |
| 54' | ⚽ | Demarai Gray · Birmingham |
| 58' | ⚽ | Adam Armstrong · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Aribo · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 22 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days |
| 158.00 |
| 553.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 2.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1420.76 | 1657.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 70.63 | -1.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.78 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.74 |
| league points | 24.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.16 | 0.68 |
| solidity v1 | 0.19 | 0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.46 | 28.61 |
| state index | 0.52 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 177.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 0.78 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.89 | 1.78 |