← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Edward Duckworth, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City win | 48% | 2.07 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.52 |
| Millwall win | 25% | 3.73 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Bristol City −0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.83 |
| Over | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Raees Bangura-Williams · Millwall |
| 50' | 🟨 | Jake Cooper · Millwall |
| 59' | ⚽ | Mihailo Ivanovic · Millwall |
| 78' | 🟨 | Sinclair Armstrong · Bristol City |
| 80' | 🟨 | Zak Sturge · Millwall |
| 87' | 🟨 | Alfie Doughty · Millwall |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thierno Ballo · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bristol City | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Ashton Gate Stadium |
| coach days | 158.00 | 370.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 2.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1516.18 | 1498.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.08 | -15.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.87 | 0.70 |
| league points | 29.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | -0.63 |
| solidity v1 | -0.01 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.20 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 1.33 |