← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 6, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Tom Nield, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 54% | 1.79 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.12 |
| Norwich win | 23% | 4.28 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Watford −0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.67 |
| Under | 42% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Harry Darling · Norwich |
| 11' | ⚽ | Josh Sargent · Norwich |
| 24' | 🟨 | Giorgi Chakvetadze · Watford |
| 33' | ⚽ | Luca Kjerrumgaard · Watford |
| 45' | ⚽ | Oscar Schwartau · Norwich |
| 54' | 🟨 | Vladan Kovačević · Norwich |
| 61' | ⚽ | Luca Kjerrumgaard · Watford |
| 78' | ⚽ | Thomas Ince · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 127.00 | 127.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 3.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1434.06 | 1372.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.16 | 6.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.65 |
| league points | 24.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 4.69 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | 0.02 |
| solidity v1 | 0.45 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.96 | 29.13 |
| state index | -0.09 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 159.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.74 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.44 |