← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 6, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Josh Smith, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 35% | 2.74 |
| Derby win | 35% | 2.79 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby +0 | 50% | 1.97 |
| Leicester +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.63 |
| Over | 41% | 2.35 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Bobby Decordova-Reid · Leicester |
| 15' | ⚽ | Oliver Skipp · Leicester |
| 19' | 🟨 | Jannik Vestergaard · Leicester |
| 22' | 🟨 | Ebou Adams · Derby |
| 24' | 🟨 | Sondre Langås · Derby |
| 31' | ⚽ | Jordan James · Leicester |
| 63' | ⚽ | Sondre Langås · Derby |
| 64' | 🟨 | Bobby Decordova-Reid · Leicester |
| 77' | 🟨 | Liam Thompson · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 18 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | Pride Park |
| coach days |
| 308.00 |
| 127.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -5.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 3.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1428.92 | 1458.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.92 | -14.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 52.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.66 |
| league points | 26.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.20 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.00 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.75 | 0.20 |
| solidity v1 | 0.36 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.89 | 29.40 |
| state index | -0.14 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.41 | 0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 38.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.25 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 1.18 |