← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 5, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Dean Whitestone, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 39% | 2.45 |
| Hull win | 35% | 2.83 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.67 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough +0 | 53% | 1.82 |
| Hull +0 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.68 |
| Under | 43% | 2.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | David Strelec · Middlesbrough |
| 32' | ⚽ | Alexander Gilbert · Middlesbrough |
| 35' | ⚽ | Morgan Whittaker · Middlesbrough |
| 44' | ⚽ | Riley McGree · Middlesbrough |
| 58' | 🟨 | Regan Slater · Hull |
| 62' | ⚽ (pen) | Joe Gelhardt · Hull |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 5 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | MKM Stadium |
| coach days | 157.00 | 126.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1447.13 | 1495.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.07 | 8.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 48.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.62 |
| league points | 28.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 62.00 |
| rest days | 6.31 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| solidity v1 | -0.94 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.72 | 28.62 |
| state index | -0.35 | 0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.51 | 0.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 107.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 1.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.09 |