← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Mon, Dec 1, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Adam Herczeg, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 54% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.78 |
| Watford win | 21% | 4.63 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham −0.5 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Watford −0.5 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.87 |
| Over | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Hector Kyprianou · Watford |
| 24' | 🟨 | Tommy Doyle · Birmingham |
| 31' | ⚽ | Seung Ho Paik · Birmingham |
| 43' | ⚽ | Demarai Gray · Birmingham |
| 61' | ⚽ | Othmane Maamma · Watford |
| 76' | 🟨 | Imrân Louza · Watford |
| 78' | 🟨 | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 80' | 🟨 | Patrick Roberts · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park |
| coach days | 548.00 | 122.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1654.01 | 1437.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.15 | 34.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.89 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.56 |
| league points | 25.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.83 | 0.34 |
| solidity v1 | 1.26 | 0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 28.61 | 26.96 |
| state index | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 135.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.62 | 1.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.15 | 1.13 |