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West Brom 3–2 Swansea

← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tom Nield, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
West Brom win52%1.85
Draw27%3.55
Swansea win21%4.71

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
West Brom −0.552%1.85
Swansea −0.548%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.76
Over45%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Žan Vipotnik · Swansea
11'⚽Ethan Galbraith · Swansea
32'🟨Nathaniel Phillips · West Brom
47'⚽Aune Selland Heggebø · West Brom
52'⚽Aune Selland Heggebø · West Brom
65'🟨Josh Key · Swansea
84'🟨Liam Cullen · Swansea
85'⚽Jayson Molumby · West Brom

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
26Shots3
10On target2
7Corners1
11Fouls13
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricWest BromSwansea
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.00
box share (last 5)0.600.45
cards avg (last 5)0.801.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueThe Hawthorns
coach days
120.00
151.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.07
corner diff avg (last 5)0.602.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.603.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.012.12
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.26
dominance (last 5)0.540.54
elo1455.731409.52
elo momentum (last 5)-0.97-45.26
eye test v1-0.33-0.30
eye trend v10.670.25
first sub minute (last 10)56.7059.50
form points (last 5)5.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.05
keeper form v1—0.64
league points22.0017.00
league rank17.0021.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.007.00
matches since win2.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6083.00
possession avg (last 5)46.8062.20
rest days2.793.80
scorer concentration0.310.38
season ppg1.291.00
shot diff avg (last 5)1.802.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.4012.80
skill v1-0.350.44
solidity v1-0.36-0.30
sot against avg (last 5)5.204.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.00
squad age26.0926.95
state index-0.13-1.13
sterile dominance v1-0.471.17
threat rate (last 10)0.240.20
threat rate (last 3)0.310.20
threat rate (last 5)0.280.21
travel km—165.60
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.511.22
xg for avg (last 5)1.150.68