← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ben Toner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 42% | 2.37 |
| Millwall win | 31% | 3.15 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Southampton +0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Tom Fellows · Southampton |
| 47' | 🟨 | Adam Armstrong · Southampton |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Adam Armstrong · Southampton |
| 72' | ⚽ | Femi Azeez · Millwall |
| 81' | ⚽ | Caleb Taylor · Millwall |
| 87' | ⚽ | Finn Azaz · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tristan Crama · Millwall |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tristan Crama · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days | 363.00 | 151.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1492.08 | 1427.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.91 | 63.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.57 |
| league points | 28.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 3.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.70 | 0.99 |
| solidity v1 | -0.30 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.81 |
| state index | -0.23 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.64 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 1.98 |