← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: James Linington, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 49% | 1.98 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.54 |
| Derby win | 24% | 4.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby −0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Middlesbrough −0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.79 |
| Over | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Patrick Agyemang · Derby |
| 22' | 🟨 | Bobby Clark · Derby |
| 67' | 🟨 | Callum Elder · Derby |
| 75' | ⚽ | Matt Targett · Middlesbrough |
| 84' | ⚽ | Morgan Whittaker · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Riverside Stadium |
| coach days |
| 120.00 |
| 301.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1488.96 | 1435.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.35 | 41.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.30 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.74 |
| league points | 30.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 36.40 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | -1.38 |
| solidity v1 | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.62 | 25.89 |
| state index | -0.36 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.83 | -1.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 185.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.32 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.14 |