← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 29, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Josh Smith, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 55% | 1.75 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 |
| Hull win | 19% | 5.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hull −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Stoke −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.84 |
| Under | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Sorba Thomas · Stoke |
| 48' | ⚽ | Semi Ajayi · Hull |
| 76' | 🟨 | Enis Destan · Hull |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ashley Phillips · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bosun Lawal · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kyle Joseph · Hull |
| 90' | 🟨 | John Lundstram · Hull |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matt Crooks · Hull |
| 90' | ⚽ | Joe Gelhardt · Hull |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 332.00 | 151.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1508.83 | 1433.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.26 | -11.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.68 |
| league points | 30.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.51 | 0.09 |
| solidity v1 | 0.94 | -1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.32 | 28.47 |
| state index | 0.61 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 146.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 2.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.39 |