← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Wed, Nov 26, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Thomas Kirk, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 37% | 2.62 |
| West Brom win | 32% | 2.96 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham +0 | 54% | 1.84 |
| West Brom +0 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.61 |
| Over | 40% | 2.42 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Alex Mowatt · West Brom |
| 28' | 🟨 | Christoph Klarer · Birmingham |
| 33' | 🟨 | Tomoki Iwata · Birmingham |
| 77' | 🟨 | Michael Johnston · West Brom |
| 78' | ⚽ | Marvin Ducksch · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days | 117.00 | 543.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.01 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1607.31 | 1679.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.66 | 17.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| league points | 21.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 4.31 | 4.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | 1.00 |
| solidity v1 | -0.41 | 1.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.40 | 26.43 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 7.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 0.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 2.09 |