← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Nov 25, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Gavin Ward, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 51% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.73 |
| Leicester win | 23% | 4.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton −0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Leicester −0.5 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.88 |
| Under | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Olabade Aluko · Leicester |
| 18' | ⚽ | Taylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton |
| 23' | ⚽ | Finn Azaz · Southampton |
| 33' | 🟨 | Olabade Aluko · Leicester |
| 33' | 🟥 | Olabade Aluko · Leicester |
| 42' | ⚽ | Taylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton |
| 68' | 🟨 | Flynn Downes · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 147.00 | 116.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 3.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1408.77 | 1489.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.93 | -12.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 52.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.66 |
| league points | 21.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 3.31 | 3.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.91 | 0.26 |
| solidity v1 | -0.47 | 0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.50 | 28.83 |
| state index | 0.04 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 191.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.88 | 1.26 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.94 | 1.30 |