← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Nov 25, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Andrew Kitchen, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 43% | 2.29 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.09 |
| Derby win | 26% | 3.67 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea −0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Derby −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 1.50 |
| Over | 36% | 2.74 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ | Joe Ward · Derby |
| 53' | ⚽ | Lars-Jørgen Salvesen · Derby |
| 82' | 🟨 | Ben Brereton Díaz · Derby |
| 90' | 🟨 | Callum Elder · Derby |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ethan Galbraith · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 20 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Swansea.com Stadium |
| coach days | 147.00 | 297.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1421.15 | 1424.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.96 | 41.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.75 |
| league points | 17.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 38.60 |
| rest days | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.08 | -1.11 |
| solidity v1 | -0.16 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.50 | 25.89 |
| state index | -0.88 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.67 | -0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 220.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.27 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.64 | 1.27 |