← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Nov 25, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Tom Nield, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 51% | 1.92 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
| Charlton win | 22% | 4.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Charlton −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.73 |
| Over | 44% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Sorba Thomas · Stoke |
| 5' | ⚽ | Million Manhoef · Stoke |
| 31' | 🟨 | Conor Coventry · Charlton |
| 34' | ⚽ | Sorba Thomas · Stoke |
| 51' | 🟨 | Ashley Phillips · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 4 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Bet365 Stadium |
| coach days |
| 328.00 |
| 663.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 0.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1490.37 | 1569.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.35 | -42.86 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.80 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.70 |
| league points | 27.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.34 | -0.50 |
| solidity v1 | 0.53 | -0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.32 | — |
| state index | 0.31 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 224.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 2.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.10 |