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Hull 0–2 Ipswich

← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Nov 25, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Lewis Smith, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ipswich win55%1.75
Draw25%3.84
Hull win20%4.92

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hull +0.7550%1.93
Ipswich +0.7550%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.93
Under49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'🟨Jens Cajuste · Ipswich
31'🟨Joe Gelhardt · Hull
52'🟨Ryan Giles · Hull
69'⚽Marcelino Núñez · Ipswich
73'⚽Chuba Akpom · Ipswich
89'🟨Jacob Greaves · Ipswich

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots16
2On target6
3Corners6
12Fouls10
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHullIpswich
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.610.56
cards avg (last 5)1.201.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMKM Stadium
coach days147.001455.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.603.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.003.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.624.10
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.09
dominance (last 5)0.430.67
elo1449.411486.61
elo momentum (last 5)7.0950.19
eye test v1-0.200.58
eye trend v1-0.40-0.14
first sub minute (last 10)55.9060.30
form points (last 5)7.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.49
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.690.54
league points25.0024.00
league rank7.0010.00
matches since blank13.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.8082.00
possession avg (last 5)51.8056.40
rest days3.203.20
scorer concentration0.300.30
season ppg1.561.60
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.207.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.6014.60
skill v10.180.75
solidity v1-0.901.61
sot against avg (last 5)4.802.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.205.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.605.40
squad age28.4727.26
state index-0.100.62
sterile dominance v10.410.43
threat rate (last 10)0.220.29
threat rate (last 3)0.170.27
threat rate (last 5)0.210.26
travel km—213.70
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.40
xg against avg (last 5)2.020.55
xg for avg (last 5)1.511.65