← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Salisbury, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 42% | 2.31 |
| Millwall win | 29% | 3.29 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.37 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Portsmouth −0.25 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.74 |
| Over | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Zak Swanson · Portsmouth |
| 45' | 🟨 | Regan Poole · Portsmouth |
| 45' | 🟨 | Danny McNamara · Millwall |
| 51' | ⚽ | Adrian Segecic · Portsmouth |
| 66' | 🟨 | Zak Swanson · Portsmouth |
| 67' | 🟥 | Joe Bryan · Millwall |
| 72' | ⚽ | Mihailo Ivanovic · Millwall |
| 89' | ⚽ | Jordan Williams · Portsmouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portsmouth | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Fratton Park |
| coach days | 1056.00 | 356.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1431.38 | 1502.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.24 | 8.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.68 |
| league points | 14.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 14.10 | 14.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | -0.66 |
| solidity v1 | -0.84 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.93 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.90 | 0.88 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.47 |