← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Matt Donohue, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 47% | 2.08 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 |
| Stoke win | 25% | 4.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Leicester −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.92 |
| Over | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Oliver Skipp · Leicester |
| 23' | ⚽ | Stephy Mavididi · Leicester |
| 43' | 🟨 | Stephy Mavididi · Leicester |
| 44' | ⚽ | Patson Daka · Leicester |
| 48' | ⚽ | Jun-Ho Bae · Stoke |
| 61' | 🟨 | Harry Winks · Leicester |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jannik Vestergaard · Leicester |
| 66' | 🟨 | Luke Thomas · Leicester |
| 90' | 🟨 | Asmir Begović · Leicester |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ashley Phillips · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aaron Cresswell |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 0 | Corners | 10 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 113.00 | 325.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.55 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1480.68 | 1499.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.87 | 28.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | — |
| league points | 21.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.46 | 0.12 |
| solidity v1 | 0.04 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 29.26 | 28.32 |
| state index | -0.43 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.74 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 80.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.28 |